Our path to a low-emissions economy
What kind of changes are lying ahead for the agricultural sector in New Zealand’s transition to net-zero? A summary of the key points of the Climate Change Commission’s advice to the Government.
The greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets have been set, at an international level in the Paris Agreement and nationally in the Zero Carbon Act. The newly established Climate Change Commission was tasked with providing advice on how New Zealand can meet these targets.
The good news is that the Commission is confident that New Zealand can reach its set targets. In terms of agriculture, the sector’s contribution to climate change mitigation is mainly two-fold: achieve a 10% reduction of biogenic methane compared to 2017 levels in the next ten years, and plant new forests that act as carbon sinks and help New Zealand to reach carbon neutrality by mid-century. However, the Commission stressed that we cannot ‘plant our way out of this’ and that new forests merely help to buy us time in the next couple of decades to undertake the radical transformations needed.
Unlike some other sectors, the changes the agricultural industry faces are perhaps less drastic and more of a continuation of the developments we’ve seen in recent years. To keep production levels constant, further efficiency gains and continuous improvements are required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This is why individual farmers play a decisive role. There is no “one size fits all” approach to how exactly farms can reduce their emissions. Every farmer will have to examine their current system carefully and identify opportunities to optimise their farm management practices. The AgriBusiness Group welcomes this individualised approach to on-farm emissions reductions. Certified farm management plans currently discussed in the context of the freshwater regulations would be suitable to monitor emissions reduction measures as well, as an overarching tool to improve system-wide performance (as discussed in our previous blog post). Continuous improvements in farming techniques are thought to be sufficient to meet the 2030 target of reducing methane by 10%. Such measures include reduced stocking rates, low nitrogen feed, diversification, more efficient nitrogen use and once-a-day milking (for more information, check out Chapter 4c of the evidence report or the recent He Waka Eke Noa Farm Planning Guidance).
New technology will play a critical role in meeting the upper end of the long-term methane reduction target. The Climate Change Commission did not include any methane reductions from these technologies in the emissions budget up to 2035 because methane inhibitors or vaccines, for example, are not readily available yet. Besides, once these new technologies have been developed, the process of approval will likely take an extensive time – particularly important for an exporting-oriented market. The main signal here is that the industry already has everything it needs today to contribute to the country’s pathway to a low-emissions economy. Nonetheless, optimised farm management practices can only get us so far. New technologies will become indispensable in achieving further reductions beyond 2050. Similarly, some emissions pricing scheme will be part of the solution (the details are currently being discussed through He Waka Eke Noa).
Forestry has a vital role to play in New Zealand’s pathway to net-zero. As forests sequester carbon, they help to offset any emissions from hard-to-abate industries. However, the Commission was adamant that carbon sinks could not be used as an excuse not to make a real effort to decarbonise every sector – whether it be transport, waste, industry or agriculture. The Commission’s model shows that a sharp increase of afforestation in the next couple of years is required and then will be sustained at around 40 to 50 thousand hectares of new forest a year. In theory, an estimated 3.3 million hectares of non-forest, mostly low-productivity grassland could be suitable for afforestation. Some land can be used for commercial forests (exotic or native). Other smaller pockets of land on the farm can be left to regenerate into native forests providing additional benefits for biodiversity, erosion control and intergenerational wellbeing. If you are interested in the opportunities of carbon farming, stay tuned as we’ll go into much more detail in the next couple of weeks here on the blog. In the meantime, check out this page or contact Sam Mander directly.
Afforestation and deforestation by year in the recommended pathway by the Climate Change Commission (source)
All in all, the pathway for agriculture described and recommended by the Climate Change Commission does not include drastic or large-scale land-use changes. Herd reduction is mentioned as an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (which is already being addressed in the new freshwater policy package). However, the Commission also points to the importance of maintaining New Zealand’s strong comparative advantage through its relative low-emissions intensity and environmental footprint and emphasises New Zealand’s role in the world of providing high-quality food products. As an export-oriented industry, what New Zealand farms is primarily in response to the international market. The focus for us in the next few decades is on the how.
Watch the open zoom session on agriculture and forestry by the Climate Change Commission:
