The Future of New Zealand Farms – what will our farms look like?
The agricultural industry is rapidly changing. Amelia Wood is reflecting on how farming has evolved over the last few decades and explores what farming might look like in the future. Rural professionals play a key role to show a clear path for farmers to navigate regulatory standards and achieve environmental and economic targets. Understanding the uniqueness of each farming business and its surrounding landscape is the key to future success.
In the past farmers wanted to become farmers for the outdoor lifestyle and to work with stock. Back then, farming practices were mostly unregulated, and common sense was the health and safety plan. Nowadays, farmers spent as much time in the office than out on the land. Nearly every aspect of the farm requires some form of a written plan. Average farm sizes have increased, resulting in staff management and people skills becoming increasingly important.
The outlook on farming has rapidly changed over the past few months. With a freshwater reform and the Carbon Zero Bill, the Government is addressing declining waterways and climate change. Farmers face challenges that are out of their control every day; volatile commodity markets, rapidly changing weather patterns, processing company performance, changing consumer demands and regulation.
Since 1994 our national dairy herd has increased by 70% while our national sheep, beef and deer numbers have decreased. Farm intensification has been driven by the need for increased profitability and productivity, competition from other land uses, declining market prices, higher land values, increasing the capital value of land, and the need to obtain a good return on capital and investments. A common intensification strategy has been to increase nitrogen use to improve stocking rates. From 1990 to 2015 national nitrogen use increased by 627%. Efficiency has been enhanced through higher lambing percentages, increased in-calf rates, and improving live weight gain in finishing stock by selecting genetics and more top quality feeds.
Efforts have not only been focused on production efficiency but also on increasing the value of ecosystems and biodiversity on farm. More than 24,000 km of waterways on dairy farms across New Zealand had been fenced off by 2017 following the Sustainable Dairying: Water Accord. Overseer is being used to ensure that farmers understand their nitrogen losses and how to reduce them. And an estimated 17% of our national native forest area is on sheep and beef farms and I believe this number will only increase with the Billion Trees Programme.
Going forward, what will farms look like to achieve the Government’s Fresh Water Reform, coupled with the Carbon Zero Bill? Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a crystal ball. Research is still catching up to understand many correlations between on-farm practices and environmental effects in their local context. Particularly, on-farm assistance to support mitigating nitrogen losses and emissions is lacking. Desktop exercises on Overseer and various mitigation tools can tell us some answers, however, how much do they actually improve water quality and reduce methane?
What will the farming business look like in the long run and how many changes need to be made throughout? How we adapt to the current challenges will define the degree of available opportunity to capture future potential and solutions. I can see that there will be strong mutual links between reducing nitrogen losses and reducing emissions. Plans and policies for reducing different contaminant types should not be separated. Instead, integration is key. Ultimately, they need to result in effective practical solutions with tangible results.
Rural professionals must have the skills and capability to support their clients to respond to challenges and changes continually. Farmers need reassurance that the steps they take on farm will give them a competitive edge while achieving environmental and social targets. This cannot be a cookie-cutter exercise if we want to excel performance on farms that produce high-quality products and meet environmental targets. Understanding the uniqueness of each farming business and its landscape is the key to success.
The future of farming will be different indeed, but farmers are resilient and have already started making a great effort in reducing environmental risk. We need to provide them with unique strategies that allow farmers to see a clear pathway to achieve regulatory targets and their personal goals.
Author: Amelia Wood