Planning for drought cycles - the new norm in New Zealand
Drought is a common word in farmers vocabularies these days - especially those farming on the east coast of New Zealand, they know all to well the impact and ever-increasing frequency of drought. Our changing climate is presenting us with more severe droughts over longer periods of time in areas of the country that haven’t historically seen droughts.
The two common weather systems, El Nino and La Nina influence whether we will expect to see drought conditions in our summer months or not. These weather systems are influenced by warming or cooling ocean temperatures in and around the pacific equator region. An El Nino weather system has warmer above average ocean temperatures and leans more towards drought conditions on our East Coast. El Nino has increased westerly winds and wetter conditions on the west coast.
La Nina is the opposite, with cooler than average ocean temperatures and wetter conditions across north eastern New Zealand and reduced rainfall to the lower and western South Island.
The last couple of summers we have experienced El Nino conditions. The weather predictions for the coming summer expects La Nina conditions; a wetter spring, a dry summer and moisture returning in autumn. In theory this is more friendly for our farming systems, but no weather pattern is entirely predictable and preparation is key.
The technical aspect of weather and forecasting is not my area of expertise - I will leave that up to our weather forecasters. I recommend Tony Trewinnard at Blue Skies Weather. Tony runs useful online sessions every week on Facebook (search Blue Skies Weather 2.0). My experience has been developed working alongside farmers, watching the adaptations and changes to their systems which impact on the survival of their businesses when faced with drought conditions.
Planning, Planning & Planning! is paramount - successful farmers implement their plans during adverse events. Have a plan and stick to it! Your planning will include; exit strategies around stock, what will be the stock class that is sold first, who are prioritised for feed and at what time. Other key areas include; opportunities and options available for supplement feed, and feed budgeting.
Include in your plan time for rest and to recharge - this does wonders for your mental well-being. Schedule in time for field days or discussion groups - catch up with friends and share your thoughts, challenges and worries. Let’s face it - everyone has their worries about what might be going to happen. The saying, ‘A problem shared is a problem halved’, comes to mind.
Surrounding your business with the right people and keeping everyone informed is an important aspect. Using trusted advisors including your vet, banker, accountant, agronomist, and technical advisor to help formulate your plan will ensure it is comprehensive and that communication lines are kept open. Empowering your staff and getting them involved to develop and implement your plan is key. Their information and feedback about what they might be seeing out and about on the farm is critical.
Kiwi farmers are renowned for giving things a go - thinking outside the box and using a feed in a different way or going with your gut instinct and making the most out of what is available to you. A recent example springs to mind - a farmer this year used the machinery he has available to harvest kale and feed it out to his stock. This has increased the utilisation of the crop, enabled him to feed it to multiple stock classes and reduced his environmental impact as well. The kale crop was the only feed that survived through the autumn drought and was a saving grace for all his capital stock. Other farmers have been lifting their fodder beet crops to improve utilisation and feed to multiple classes of stock.
Dryland forage species are real winners, lucerne and sub clover are two that dominate many dryland systems – they work. Incorporate more of them into your systems and understand how to manage them for growth and stock. Getting the system right will reap the benefits.
The Avery family in Marlborough have been pioneers of drought resilient systems including mindset resilience! Adopting the right forage species to suit the environment. Lucerne has been successful for them and has enabled finishing of stock early year on year; 80% weaned lambs prime off mum at 40kg average - pretty good numbers for a dryland system. For the Avery’s it has been about farming for the environment they have, not trying to fit the farm system they want into their environment.
Key points - look ahead, know what is coming, create a plan, or multiple plans that you might implement at different stages. Back yourself on the decisions you make, you are the one in the best position to know what to do, your supporters can help guide you. Drought is common and it is going to continue to influence our farming systems in the coming years. It is time to make your plans and think about your options to ensure you get through the next drought in one healthy, happy & positive piece.
